THE ROLE OF IMPORTS AS THE FACTOR OF ENSURING ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ARMENIA։ CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS

Аннотация

Trade is an essential factor in ensuring the economic growth of every country. Therefore, we identified the role of real imports in explaining statistically significant changes in the real GDP, and the role of changes in the real household final consumption expenditures and real exports of goods and services in explaining statistically significant changes in the real imports in the short-run, based on the least square estimation technique and using quarterly data covering from the first quarter of 2012 to the second quarter of 2023 to indicate the respective priorities to face external shocks and challenges, based on the scenarios designed by us. The respective estimates allowed us to conclude that the real imports have started to have a statistically significant impact in explaining the changes in the real GDP of Armenia due to the increased role of imports in ensuring export growth in Armenia. The increased role of imports is substantiated by the increased role of exports of services and goods and household final consumption expenditure due to the small size of the domestic market of Armenia and the appreciated Armenian dram against the US dollar and the Russian ruble. We stress the role of export diversification of those goods that Armenia has a comparative advantage in producing thereof by export markets and increase in the share of value-added created in Armenia with respect to the exported goods.